Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  16.9  14.0  12.9  13.2  16.8  21.4  20.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   1.0   1.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0   9.0 -41.0 -17.0  -2.0  17.0 -15.0   8.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.4%        7.0%        5.2%
 25kt / 24h       10.9%       37.1%       24.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%       25.3%       16.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%       25.3%       14.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       24.7%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h        9.0%       41.7%       25.3%
 55kt / 36h        5.4%       24.9%       15.1%
 55kt / 48h        7.4%       24.0%       15.7%
 70kt / 48h        2.0%       13.1%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%       16.4%        9.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP252026 260925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    130.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  16.9  14.0  12.9  13.2  16.8  21.4  20.3  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  52.0  52.0  55.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   5.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%