Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  13.6  15.6  10.9  20.2  19.4  26.2  27.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   1.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -41.0 -16.0 -15.0   6.0 -13.0  12.0 -24.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.2%       15.4%       12.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.2%       53.7%       37.5%
 30kt / 24h       15.8%       47.1%       31.4%
 35kt / 24h       15.8%       47.1%       31.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       46.8%       26.0%
 45kt / 36h       12.1%       53.4%       32.7%
 55kt / 36h        7.6%       38.0%       22.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.0%       27.7%       16.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%       16.4%        9.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%       15.7%        8.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP252026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    129.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  13.6  15.6  10.9  20.2  19.4  26.2  27.3  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  51.0  54.0  57.0  57.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   0.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%