Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  13.5  11.8  11.5  15.8  19.7  22.6  29.2  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   3.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   1.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -43.0 -18.0 -24.0 -29.0  25.0   6.0  26.0 -47.0 VU  U VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.7%       16.6%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       20.6%       52.6%       36.6%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       49.9%       34.2%
 35kt / 24h       18.5%       49.9%       34.2%
 40kt / 24h        7.6%       49.9%       28.7%
 45kt / 36h       13.5%       47.6%       30.6%
 55kt / 36h        8.4%       32.7%       20.5%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%       27.1%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%       14.0%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%       12.0%        6.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP252026 260925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  13.5  11.8  11.5  15.8  19.7  22.6  29.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  48.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  55.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%