Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  11.2  10.3  15.6  16.9  21.2  23.6  30.6  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0  46.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     3.0  17.0   2.0  10.0   2.0   8.0   7.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.3%       21.8%       19.0%
 25kt / 24h       29.3%       59.3%       44.3%
 30kt / 24h       23.2%       59.3%       41.3%
 35kt / 24h       21.6%       59.3%       40.5%
 40kt / 24h       17.3%       59.3%       38.3%
 45kt / 36h       20.3%       46.2%       33.2%
 55kt / 36h       12.0%       29.9%       20.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%       25.6%       16.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.6%       11.2%        6.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%       10.2%        6.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 WP252026 260925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.3  11.2  10.3  15.6  16.9  21.2  23.6  30.6  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  55.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%