Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 11.4 14.3 15.6 19.3 17.7 21.8 29.3 F F F F N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 1.0 47.0 48.0 U U U U U U N N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 -16.0 -6.0 -24.0 -17.0 37.0 -62.0 -21.0 U U U VU U N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 48.0 50.0 49.0 53.0 52.0 50.0 VU U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 -3.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.3% 22.0% 20.2% 25kt / 24h 24.0% 52.8% 38.4% 30kt / 24h 22.5% 52.8% 37.6% 35kt / 24h 22.5% 52.8% 37.6% 40kt / 24h 15.9% 52.8% 34.4% 45kt / 36h 14.4% 33.6% 24.0% 55kt / 36h 8.5% 19.2% 13.8% 55kt / 48h 3.2% 19.5% 11.4% 70kt / 48h 0.7% 6.9% 3.8% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 6.3% 3.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.10 WP252026 260926 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 127.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 11.4 14.3 15.6 19.3 17.7 21.8 29.3 U U U U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 48.0 50.0 49.0 53.0 52.0 50.0 VF F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 -3.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%