Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  15.8  15.6  16.2  18.4  17.1  26.5  22.7  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   1.0  47.0  47.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -6.0 -24.0 -29.0 -25.0 -15.0 -51.0   0.0  U  U VU VU VU  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  48.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       36.9%       34.4%       35.6%
 25kt / 24h       40.9%       68.1%       54.5%
 30kt / 24h       40.9%       68.1%       54.5%
 35kt / 24h       40.9%       68.1%       54.5%
 40kt / 24h       26.7%       68.1%       47.4%
 45kt / 36h       19.2%       34.4%       26.8%
 55kt / 36h       10.2%       20.2%       15.2%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%       23.0%       12.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        6.6%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        5.2%        2.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP252026 260926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    126.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  15.8  15.6  16.2  18.4  17.1  26.5  22.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  48.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   4.0   2.0   1.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%