Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  25.5  27.6  30.4  27.6  27.9  21.5  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   3.0   1.0   1.0  47.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -26.0 -46.0 -37.0 -30.0 -35.0  -9.0 -13.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  47.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.1%       10.5%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       19.0%       15.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       17.6%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       17.6%       14.3%
 40kt / 24h        9.4%       17.6%       13.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%        5.0%        4.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.5%        1.5%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        2.9%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP252026 260926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    127.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  25.5  27.6  30.4  27.6  27.9  21.5  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  47.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   1.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%