Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  31.8  29.9  33.5  27.8  31.9  20.3  20.3  N  U  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0  44.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  51.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -43.0 -43.0  21.0 -24.0 -22.0  -6.0  -7.0  U VU VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   6.0   8.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.8%        9.8%       14.8%
 25kt / 24h       11.8%       17.1%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.8%       14.1%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h       11.8%       14.1%       13.0%
 40kt / 24h       10.3%       12.7%       11.5%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%        6.0%        7.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        1.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.08

 WP252026 260927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.60    127.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  31.8  29.9  33.5  27.8  31.9  20.3  20.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  48.0  49.0  49.0  53.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   1.0   6.0   8.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%