Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  35.2  30.5  26.1  29.2  24.4  23.6  11.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0  45.0  43.0   1.0   1.0  46.0   9.0  29.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   1.0   5.0  17.0  -8.0  18.0 -15.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  42.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   1.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.1%       12.7%       25.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.0%       16.2%       16.6%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       13.2%       15.1%
 35kt / 24h       17.0%       13.2%       15.1%
 40kt / 24h       11.8%       10.3%       11.0%
 45kt / 36h       30.6%        8.4%       19.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP252026 260927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    128.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  35.2  30.5  26.1  29.2  24.4  23.6  11.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  53.0  52.0  42.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   5.0   1.0   6.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%