Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  29.9  22.9  27.7  24.9  25.8  20.3   9.1  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0   1.0   1.0  51.0  45.0  27.0   5.0  12.0  N  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0   4.0  11.0 -12.0 -13.0   7.0  -5.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  45.0  40.0  43.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.3%        4.2%       11.7%
 25kt / 24h        4.9%        4.6%        4.7%
 30kt / 24h        4.9%        3.1%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.04

 WP252026 260927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  29.9  22.9  27.7  24.9  25.8  20.3   9.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  50.0  52.0  51.0  54.0  45.0  40.0  43.0 VF  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       11.2%        5.6%