Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 260927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  31.0  35.6  38.4  29.5  28.8  18.0  25.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   1.0   1.0  47.0  39.0  24.0  12.0  24.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0 -22.0 -19.0 -28.0 -19.0 -16.0 -16.0   5.0  N VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  55.0  55.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        1.6%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.3%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        0.7%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.06

 WP252026 260927 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.30    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     85.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.5  31.0  35.6  38.4  29.5  28.8  18.0  25.5  F  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  50.0  55.0  55.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   6.0   3.0   6.0   6.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       22.1%       11.0%