Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260928 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 133.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 28.2 29.6 30.4 27.8 38.3 48.1 66.6 U N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 30.0 1.0 21.0 87.0 95.0 4.0 47.0 U U U U N F U N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -5.0 -9.0 -18.0 0.0 3.0 41.0 94.0 VU U U U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 51.0 46.0 38.0 42.0 44.0 44.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 7.0 21.0 10.0-103.0 N N N U N VU U VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.14 WP252026 260928 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.10 133.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.5 28.2 29.6 30.4 27.8 38.3 48.1 66.6 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 51.0 46.0 38.0 42.0 44.0 44.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 7.0 21.0 10.0-103.0 N N N F N VF F VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.6% 1.8%