Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260929 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 32.3 33.3 28.5 31.5 36.0 59.5 73.2 U U U N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 2.0 22.0 77.0 91.0 90.0 48.0 61.0 U U U N F F N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 23.0 -6.0 -13.0 0.0 11.0 105.0 121.0 U U U U U U F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 41.0 47.0 41.0 53.0 U U U VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 5.0 13.0 12.0 15.0 15.0 -12.0 -46.0 U N U U U U F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 WP252026 260929 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.60 133.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.7 32.3 33.3 28.5 31.5 36.0 59.5 73.2 F N F N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 51.0 47.0 41.0 47.0 41.0 53.0 F F F VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 5.0 13.0 12.0 15.0 15.0 -12.0 -46.0 F N F F F F U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.6% 0.8%