Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260929 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 135.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.00 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 32.5 28.5 31.1 39.0 48.5 62.6 104.3 U U N U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 22.0 14.0 84.0 91.0 17.0 53.0 62.0 U U U N F U N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 -6.0 -13.0 -9.0 -2.0 58.0 84.0 188.0 U U U U U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 51.0 48.0 43.0 44.0 46.0 43.0 53.0 U U U VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 13.0 12.0 9.0 19.0 10.0-129.0 -20.0 N U U U VU U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.7% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.24 WP252026 260929 06UTC Storm Located at : 29.00 135.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 32.5 28.5 31.1 39.0 48.5 62.6 104.3 N N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 51.0 48.0 43.0 44.0 46.0 43.0 53.0 F F F VF VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 13.0 12.0 9.0 19.0 10.0-129.0 -20.0 N F F F VF F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3%