Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260929 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.20 136.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 25.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.10 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 29.2 27.6 29.8 38.9 66.5 77.0 115.2 U N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 14.0 85.0 89.0 91.0 48.0 56.0 73.0 U U N F F N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -21.0 -20.0 -11.0 -20.0 4.0 82.0 80.0 148.0 VU VU U VU U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 43.0 41.0 47.0 43.0 50.0 58.0 U U VU VU VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 9.0 6.0 11.0 17.0 -9.0 -90.0 26.0 U U N U U F VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.3% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 1.9% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 70kt / 48h -0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.26 WP252026 260929 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.20 136.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 29.2 27.6 29.8 38.9 66.5 77.0 115.2 F N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 43.0 41.0 47.0 43.0 50.0 58.0 F F VF VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 9.0 6.0 11.0 17.0 -9.0 -90.0 26.0 F F N F F U VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%