Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260930 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 138.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 49.4 45.5 50.7 77.4 123.6 123.6 123.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 91.0 95.0 94.0 4.0 54.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 F F F U N U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 4.0 -2.0 66.0 82.0 112.0 112.0 112.0 U U U N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 -76.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 U U U U VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.22 WP252026 260930 06UTC Storm Located at : 31.20 138.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.8 49.4 45.5 50.7 77.4 123.6 123.6 123.6 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 44.0 45.0 46.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 16.0 14.0 14.0 -76.0 -24.0 -24.0 -24.0 F F F F VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 6.6% 0.9% 3.7%