Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260930 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.90 139.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.5 39.5 47.2 49.9 71.2 106.1 106.1 106.1 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 95.0 93.0 33.0 50.0 59.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 F F U N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 1.0 8.0 23.0 63.0 44.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 U U U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 52.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 VU VU VU VU U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 17.0 16.0 11.0 -88.0-153.0-153.0-153.0 U U U U VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.0% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.16 WP252026 260930 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.90 139.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 48.5 39.5 47.2 49.9 71.2 106.1 106.1 106.1 VF F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 52.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 17.0 16.0 11.0 -88.0-153.0-153.0-153.0 F F F F VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.1% 0.8% 4.5%