Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 260930 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 139.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.10 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.3 50.1 62.8 71.5 102.4 128.5 128.5 128.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 94.0 18.0 51.0 58.0 62.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 F U N N N N N N Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 71.0 90.0 110.0 45.0 92.0 92.0 92.0 U N F F N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 55.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 VU U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 18.0 13.0 -35.0 -33.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 U VU U VF VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 WP252026 260930 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.30 139.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.3 50.1 62.8 71.5 102.4 128.5 128.5 128.5 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 55.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 VF F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 18.0 13.0 -35.0 -33.0 -11.0 -11.0 -11.0 F VF F VU VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.4% 1.1% 4.3%