Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 261001 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 140.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.5 56.5 64.4 69.2 111.8 125.0 75.2 36.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 54.0 62.0 55.0 70.0 106.0 95.0 111.0 U N N N N F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 91.0 111.0 55.0 84.0 108.0 116.0 54.0 N F F N N F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 56.0 53.0 60.0 62.0 57.0 71.0 U U U U N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 22.0 -27.0 -90.0 2.0 24.0 87.0 10.0 U VU VF VF N VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP252026 261001 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.20 140.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.5 56.5 64.4 69.2 111.8 125.0 75.2 36.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 52.0 56.0 53.0 60.0 62.0 57.0 71.0 F F F F N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 22.0 -27.0 -90.0 2.0 24.0 87.0 10.0 F VF VU VU N VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 13.3% 0.6% 7.0%