Rapid Intensification Guidance WP252026 261001 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.60 142.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.6 71.4 84.9 100.6 125.4 125.4 125.4 125.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 55.0 62.0 57.0 61.0 94.0 94.0 94.0 94.0 N N N N F F F F Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 110.0 98.0 113.0 119.0 119.0 119.0 119.0 F F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 50.0 54.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 -40.0 17.0 47.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 U VF U VU VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.26 WP252026 261001 06UTC Storm Located at : 34.60 142.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 59.6 71.4 84.9 100.6 125.4 125.4 125.4 125.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 50.0 54.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 -40.0 17.0 47.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 F VU F VF VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 36.8% 5.3% 21.0%