Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP252026 261001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        79.4  96.3 136.1 144.3 102.7  59.3  47.7  34.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  55.0  63.0  64.0  70.0 100.0 112.0 148.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   105.0  90.0 109.0 115.0  99.0  84.0  30.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  53.0  61.0  64.0  60.0  66.0  65.0  63.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -59.0  13.0  28.0 -26.0 -22.0  -9.0   0.0   2.0 VF  U VU VF VF  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP252026 261001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.40    144.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        79.4  96.3 136.1 144.3 102.7  59.3  47.7  34.1 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  53.0  61.0  64.0  60.0  66.0  65.0  63.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -59.0  13.0  28.0 -26.0 -22.0  -9.0   0.0   2.0 VU  F VF VU VU  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       99.5%       38.2%       68.8%