Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 260930 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 151.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.8 22.6 21.3 21.6 20.3 17.9 17.3 14.4 N N N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 17.0 62.0 48.0 55.0 50.0 29.0 14.0 U U N N N N U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 111.0 100.0 136.0 132.0 168.0 187.0 161.0 F F F VF F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 75.0 76.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -6.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 N F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.8% 2.2% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 12.6% 34.2% 23.4% 30kt / 24h 4.0% 16.0% 10.0% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 16.0% 8.7% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 13.9% 7.4% 45kt / 36h 11.6% 49.7% 30.7% 55kt / 36h 4.8% 26.2% 15.5% 55kt / 48h 35.3% 36.4% 35.8% 70kt / 48h 17.1% 32.5% 24.8% 65kt / 72h 59.4% 69.0% 64.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.20 WP262026 260930 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 151.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.8 22.6 21.3 21.6 20.3 17.9 17.3 14.4 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 79.0 75.0 76.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -6.0 1.0 4.0 7.0 N U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%