Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 260930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  23.9  26.1  22.7  18.0  18.3  13.3  14.2  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  58.0  57.0  54.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   111.0 100.0 136.0 120.0 155.0 201.0 176.0 157.0  F  F VF  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.3%        4.6%        4.0%
 25kt / 24h       22.8%       41.4%       32.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       20.7%       15.8%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       20.7%       12.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.1%       20.7%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h       26.4%       57.8%       42.1%
 55kt / 36h       13.8%       34.4%       24.1%
 55kt / 48h       49.4%       44.3%       46.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.3%       41.1%       33.2%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       76.3%       69.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP262026 260930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  23.9  26.1  22.7  18.0  18.3  13.3  14.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -2.0   1.0   5.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%