Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 260930 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 23.3 25.7 25.6 28.4 26.7 21.4 21.2 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 47.0 58.0 57.0 55.0 52.0 53.0 55.0 56.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 93.0 78.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 75.0 45.0 N F N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 73.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 2.0 N N N N U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.5% 9.4% 8.5% 25kt / 24h 28.7% 51.5% 40.1% 30kt / 24h 14.6% 33.4% 24.0% 35kt / 24h 9.7% 33.4% 21.5% 40kt / 24h 4.0% 31.1% 17.5% 45kt / 36h 19.9% 53.8% 36.9% 55kt / 36h 10.2% 31.5% 20.9% 55kt / 48h 23.0% 27.5% 25.2% 70kt / 48h 9.2% 20.3% 14.8% 65kt / 72h 26.5% 42.8% 34.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.12 WP262026 260930 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 151.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 23.3 25.7 25.6 28.4 26.7 21.4 21.2 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 71.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 74.0 73.0 74.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 1.0 2.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 2.0 N N N N F F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%