Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 260930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  25.4  24.1  25.7  19.9  17.3  20.3  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  53.0  54.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0  68.0  56.0  73.0 108.0 132.0  79.0  92.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  81.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        3.4%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h       13.9%       30.1%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       14.6%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%       14.4%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%       13.2%        6.9%
 45kt / 36h       13.7%       38.2%       26.0%
 55kt / 36h        6.3%       17.9%       12.1%
 55kt / 48h       29.4%       28.9%       29.1%
 70kt / 48h       13.2%       18.6%       15.9%
 65kt / 72h       36.4%       45.2%       40.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP262026 260930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  25.4  24.1  25.7  19.9  17.3  20.3  13.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  81.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   9.0   3.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%