Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 261001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  26.8  22.7  16.3  11.8  13.8  11.4  11.8  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  56.0  55.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  74.0 106.0 109.0 132.0  80.0  91.0  72.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        3.6%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h       18.1%       34.6%       26.3%
 30kt / 24h        9.5%       18.1%       13.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       18.1%       11.7%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       17.7%        9.7%
 45kt / 36h       25.6%       45.9%       35.7%
 55kt / 36h       13.0%       23.5%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       42.5%       39.0%       40.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.5%       25.0%       24.2%
 65kt / 72h       51.3%       53.6%       52.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP262026 261001 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    146.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  26.8  22.7  16.3  11.8  13.8  11.4  11.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   1.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%