Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 261001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  22.3  14.1  16.1  20.2  14.1  12.0  14.5  N  N  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0  86.0  95.0  98.0 107.0  98.0  30.0   5.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   4.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.4%        6.3%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h       30.0%       46.3%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       33.7%       26.1%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%       33.7%       23.8%
 40kt / 24h        5.1%       33.7%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h       29.2%       38.8%       34.0%
 55kt / 36h       14.2%       18.4%       16.3%
 55kt / 48h       37.2%       35.1%       36.1%
 70kt / 48h       18.9%       17.0%       17.9%
 65kt / 72h       34.4%       35.5%       34.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP262026 261001 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  22.3  14.1  16.1  20.2  14.1  12.0  14.5  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  67.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   8.0   4.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%