Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 261002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  16.4  17.3  18.0  19.3  18.9   9.3  16.2  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 102.0 100.0 101.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 103.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 114.0 122.0 121.0  72.0  70.0  62.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  14.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.4%       11.7%       13.5%
 25kt / 24h       53.5%       60.0%       56.7%
 30kt / 24h       38.9%       46.8%       42.8%
 35kt / 24h       22.5%       46.8%       34.7%
 40kt / 24h       22.5%       46.8%       34.7%
 45kt / 36h       53.1%       47.9%       50.5%
 55kt / 36h       32.3%       23.0%       27.7%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       44.2%       43.1%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       21.1%       23.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       52.1%       57.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP262026 261002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  16.4  17.3  18.0  19.3  18.9   9.3  16.2  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   5.0   5.0   7.0  14.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%