Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261003 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 145.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 85.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 18.1 18.8 17.4 15.2 15.6 13.0 23.5 N F N F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 54.0 53.0 51.0 51.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 99.0 90.0 102.0 97.0 78.0 39.0 61.0 37.0 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 77.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 70.0 64.0 60.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 13.0 11.0 8.0 4.0 7.0 16.0 31.0 N U U U N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 33.3% 23.4% 28.4% 25kt / 24h 59.9% 65.0% 62.4% 30kt / 24h 47.7% 64.9% 56.3% 35kt / 24h 42.1% 64.9% 53.5% 40kt / 24h 28.7% 64.9% 46.8% 45kt / 36h 53.5% 42.2% 47.9% 55kt / 36h 25.1% 21.9% 23.5% 55kt / 48h 30.0% 34.7% 32.4% 70kt / 48h 13.6% 10.4% 12.0% 65kt / 72h 19.4% 11.6% 15.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 WP262026 261003 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.40 145.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.8 18.1 18.8 17.4 15.2 15.6 13.0 23.5 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 77.0 77.0 75.0 75.0 74.0 70.0 64.0 60.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 13.0 11.0 8.0 4.0 7.0 16.0 31.0 N F F F N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%