Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 261003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    146.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  15.1  16.4  12.7  15.7  15.4  16.1  32.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0 127.0 118.0  87.0  60.0  30.0  69.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   8.0  11.0   2.0   6.0   6.0  12.0  38.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.3%       23.7%       37.5%
 25kt / 24h       59.7%       59.1%       59.4%
 30kt / 24h       54.3%       58.9%       56.6%
 35kt / 24h       44.1%       58.9%       51.5%
 40kt / 24h       40.3%       58.9%       49.6%
 45kt / 36h       76.7%       39.3%       58.0%
 55kt / 36h       30.9%       20.8%       25.8%
 55kt / 48h       45.0%       23.1%       34.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP262026 261003 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.30    146.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  15.1  16.4  12.7  15.7  15.4  16.1  32.3  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  67.0  63.0  62.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   8.0  11.0   2.0   6.0   6.0  12.0  38.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%