Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261004 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 147.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.1 14.7 13.9 12.5 12.4 17.9 30.6 46.6 F F F F F F U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 51.0 50.0 49.0 47.0 46.0 49.0 56.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 147.0 119.0 111.0 108.0 62.0 77.0 54.0 76.0 VF F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 74.0 71.0 69.0 65.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 13.0 8.0 7.0 11.0 21.0 43.0 -48.0 U U U N U VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 68.0% 32.9% 50.4% 25kt / 24h 67.7% 61.5% 64.6% 30kt / 24h 62.3% 60.5% 61.4% 35kt / 24h 55.8% 60.5% 58.1% 40kt / 24h 43.3% 57.3% 50.3% 45kt / 36h 98.2% 57.9% 78.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.96 WP262026 261004 00UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 147.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.1 14.7 13.9 12.5 12.4 17.9 30.6 46.6 U U U U U N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 74.0 71.0 69.0 65.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 17.0 13.0 8.0 7.0 11.0 21.0 43.0 -48.0 F F F N F VF VF VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5%