Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261004 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 81.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 13.1 13.5 15.1 15.7 23.3 34.1 59.5 F F F F F N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 49.0 48.0 47.0 46.0 47.0 52.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 75.0 82.0 57.0 76.0 59.0 43.0 109.0 F N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 68.0 65.0 66.0 63.0 59.0 53.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 14.0 32.0 88.0 63.0 U N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 58.6% 20.9% 39.7% 25kt / 24h 40.9% 31.7% 36.3% 30kt / 24h 34.4% 27.4% 30.9% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.92 WP262026 261004 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.90 147.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 13.1 13.5 15.1 15.7 23.3 34.1 59.5 U U U U U N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 68.0 65.0 66.0 63.0 59.0 53.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 3.0 3.0 8.0 14.0 32.0 88.0 63.0 F N N F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.5% 0.8%