Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261004 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 14.6 12.4 12.1 21.4 35.7 44.5 65.2 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 49.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 50.0 20.0 75.0 N N N N N N U N Potential [kt] 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 96.0 99.0 72.0 68.0 91.0 59.0 104.0 85.0 F F N N F N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 59.0 54.0 46.0 39.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 25.0 47.0 53.0 27.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 52.0% 14.8% 33.4% 25kt / 24h 30.2% 21.3% 25.8% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.92 WP262026 261004 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 146.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.4 14.6 12.4 12.1 21.4 35.7 44.5 65.2 U U U U N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 59.0 54.0 46.0 39.0 N N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 8.0 9.0 8.0 25.0 47.0 53.0 27.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7%