Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261004 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.40 147.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 17.6 15.0 17.9 23.1 34.1 64.0 77.8 F F F F N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 50.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 50.0 43.0 86.0 94.0 N N N N N N N F Potential [kt] 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 127.0 86.0 65.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 71.0 133.0 F F N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 61.0 54.0 48.0 56.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 21.0 18.0 22.0 30.0 42.0 -15.0 -6.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.4% 3.0% 7.2% 25kt / 24h 7.0% 5.2% 6.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.94 WP262026 261004 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.40 147.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.5 17.6 15.0 17.9 23.1 34.1 64.0 77.8 N N U N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 66.0 67.0 64.0 61.0 54.0 48.0 56.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 12.0 21.0 18.0 22.0 30.0 42.0 -15.0 -6.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.9% 1.9%