Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261005 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 58.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 15.4 19.7 26.2 38.9 44.0 73.2 75.1 F F N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 51.0 56.0 79.0 116.0 N N N N N N N F Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 64.0 70.0 83.0 61.0 71.0 110.0 121.0 154.0 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 64.0 65.0 59.0 47.0 41.0 56.0 N N N N U VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 17.0 30.0 39.0 81.0 24.0 -12.0 158.0 U U VU VU VU VU F VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 0.8% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.4% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.00 WP262026 261005 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.20 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 15.4 19.7 26.2 38.9 44.0 73.2 75.1 U U N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 66.0 64.0 65.0 59.0 47.0 41.0 56.0 N N N N F VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 17.0 30.0 39.0 81.0 24.0 -12.0 158.0 F F VF VF VF VF U VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.1% 4.6%