Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.30 146.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 19.7 27.2 30.2 39.9 58.0 69.5 63.9 F N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 44.0 46.0 48.0 43.0 85.0 90.0 128.0 N N N N N N F VF Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 69.0 83.0 59.0 25.0 93.0 133.0 149.0 134.0 N N N U F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 64.0 66.0 63.0 55.0 41.0 52.0 64.0 N N N N U VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 30.0 41.0 40.0 76.0 113.0 -25.0 172.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.4% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 WP262026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 26.30 146.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.9 19.7 27.2 30.2 39.9 58.0 69.5 63.9 U N N N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 64.0 66.0 63.0 55.0 41.0 52.0 64.0 N N N N F VF F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 18.0 30.0 41.0 40.0 76.0 113.0 -25.0 172.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 18.4% 9.2%