Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261005 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 145.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 26.9 30.5 38.8 41.8 73.5 71.0 41.5 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 45.0 49.0 51.0 61.0 79.0 116.0 136.0 N N N N N N F VF Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 60.0 25.0 70.0 109.0 121.0 152.0 47.0 N N U N F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 66.0 64.0 59.0 47.0 41.0 62.0 72.0 N N N U VU VU N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 30.0 39.0 47.0 82.0 14.0 -33.0 128.0 152.0 VU VU VU VU U VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 6.8% 0.2% 3.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 WP262026 261005 12UTC Storm Located at : 27.30 145.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.7 26.9 30.5 38.8 41.8 73.5 71.0 41.5 N N N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 66.0 64.0 59.0 47.0 41.0 62.0 72.0 N N N F VF VF N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 30.0 39.0 47.0 82.0 14.0 -33.0 128.0 152.0 VF VF VF VF F VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 2.2% 24.3% 13.2%