Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261005 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 145.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 36.8 40.3 41.9 58.2 64.1 45.0 42.5 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 45.0 47.0 51.0 43.0 85.0 89.0 120.0 133.0 N N N N N F F VF Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 64.0 56.0 80.0 85.0 122.0 140.0 143.0 80.0 N N N F F VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 58.0 50.0 40.0 49.0 62.0 73.0 N N U U VU U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 43.0 89.0 85.0 75.0 -30.0 122.0 23.0 VU VU VU VU VU VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.3% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 4.3% 0.2% 2.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 WP262026 261005 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.40 145.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 36.8 40.3 41.9 58.2 64.1 45.0 42.5 N F F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 58.0 50.0 40.0 49.0 62.0 73.0 N N F F VF F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 20.0 43.0 89.0 85.0 75.0 -30.0 122.0 23.0 VF VF VF VF VF VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 17.0% 34.9% 26.0%