Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP262026 261006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.60    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    96.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.4%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.4%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        0.0%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP262026 261006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.60    146.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  46.2  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  47.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  42.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0  81.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       52.8%       39.8%       46.3%