Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261006 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.30 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 32.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.70 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.6 55.3 71.2 66.0 58.2 42.3 29.7 25.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 67.0 90.0 86.0 97.0 136.0 140.0 176.0 112.0 N F N F VF VF VF F Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 140.0 137.0 175.0 133.0 116.0 65.0 65.0 F VF VF VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 40.0 49.0 50.0 54.0 54.0 56.0 62.0 VU VU U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 152.0 40.0 41.0 47.0 241.0 -6.0 30.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 36.9% 0.0% 18.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP262026 261006 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.30 149.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 127.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.6 55.3 71.2 66.0 58.2 42.3 29.7 25.3 VF VF VF VF VF VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 40.0 49.0 50.0 54.0 54.0 56.0 62.0 VF VF F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 152.0 40.0 41.0 47.0 241.0 -6.0 30.0 30.0 VF VF VF VF VF U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 99.5% 66.7% 83.1%