Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261007 00UTC Storm Located at : 39.20 152.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 24.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 142.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.8 69.8 68.0 60.2 43.8 47.1 25.9 20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 80.0 84.0 99.0 109.0 133.0 171.0 195.0 199.0 N N F F VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 115.0 132.0 119.0 96.0 92.0 36.0 16.0 F F F F F F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 66.0 71.0 60.0 66.0 VU VU VU U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -83.0 3.0 -12.0 -55.0 109.0 37.0 45.0 F VF N F VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 0.1% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 47.2% 0.2% 23.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP262026 261007 00UTC Storm Located at : 39.20 152.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 142.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.8 69.8 68.0 60.2 43.8 47.1 25.9 20.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 45.0 47.0 49.0 66.0 71.0 60.0 66.0 VF VF VF F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -83.0 3.0 -12.0 -55.0 109.0 37.0 45.0 U VU N U VU VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 11.9% 25.7% 18.8%