Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261007 06UTC Storm Located at : 42.50 156.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 8.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.40 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 73.3 72.5 67.2 44.7 44.5 22.9 23.6 20.4 VU VU VU VU VU N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 85.0 100.0 108.0 116.0 170.0 195.0 196.0 200.0 N F F F VF VF VF VF Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 150.0 134.0 161.0 150.0 108.0 44.0 56.0 20.0 VF VF VF VF F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 53.0 58.0 65.0 76.0 73.0 76.0 81.0 VU U U N F N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-123.0 67.0 51.0 130.0 2.0 -2.0 1.0 -10.0 VF VU VU VU N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 8.8% 0.3% 4.5% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 0.0% 0.6% 65kt / 72h 59.3% 0.7% 30.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.74 WP262026 261007 06UTC Storm Located at : 42.50 156.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 137.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 73.3 72.5 67.2 44.7 44.5 22.9 23.6 20.4 VF VF VF VF VF N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 53.0 58.0 65.0 76.0 73.0 76.0 81.0 VF F F N U N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-123.0 67.0 51.0 130.0 2.0 -2.0 1.0 -10.0 VU VF VF VF N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 98.8% 47.9% 73.3%