Rapid Intensification Guidance WP262026 261007 12UTC Storm Located at : 46.00 162.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 73.8 69.7 43.8 44.7 27.3 23.6 20.0 17.0 VU VU VU VU N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 100.0 109.0 112.0 130.0 172.0 192.0 190.0 101.0 F F F VF VF VF VF F Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 134.0 161.0 149.0 98.0 93.0 66.0 64.0 57.0 VF VF VF F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 57.0 66.0 67.0 63.0 69.0 72.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 98.0 90.0 117.0 28.0 -4.0 -7.0 -1.0 0.0 VU VU VU VU F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 22.3% 0.5% 11.4% 70kt / 48h 6.3% 0.0% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 1.2% 31.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP262026 261007 12UTC Storm Located at : 46.00 162.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 73.8 69.7 43.8 44.7 27.3 23.6 20.0 17.0 VF VF VF VF N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 57.0 66.0 67.0 63.0 69.0 72.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 98.0 90.0 117.0 28.0 -4.0 -7.0 -1.0 0.0 VF VF VF VF U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 95.0% 31.4% 63.2%