Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    168.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  27.9  24.0  20.6  21.6  27.5  28.5  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  91.0  90.0  89.0  85.0  81.0  76.0  78.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   110.0 130.0  87.0  56.0  24.0 109.0  74.0 105.0  F  F  F  N  U  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        4.6%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h       27.2%       43.2%       35.2%
 30kt / 24h       14.7%       20.0%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        5.8%       19.4%       12.6%
 40kt / 24h        5.8%       19.4%       12.6%
 45kt / 36h       24.6%       53.1%       38.9%
 55kt / 36h       16.6%       28.4%       22.5%
 55kt / 48h       48.7%       30.1%       39.4%
 70kt / 48h       26.3%       26.6%       26.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       50.5%       56.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.08

 WP272026 261005 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.50    168.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  27.9  24.0  20.6  21.6  27.5  28.5  30.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  66.0  61.0  60.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%