Rapid Intensification Guidance WP272026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.00 168.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 24.3 19.0 20.3 22.9 35.3 38.7 45.7 N N N N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 91.0 90.0 87.0 84.0 77.0 76.0 78.0 75.0 F F N N N N N N Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 130.0 87.0 55.0 26.0 61.0 81.0 99.0 61.0 F F N U N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 N N N U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.9% 4.6% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 26.2% 40.8% 33.5% 30kt / 24h 15.8% 19.6% 17.7% 35kt / 24h 6.0% 19.6% 12.8% 40kt / 24h 6.0% 19.6% 12.8% 45kt / 36h 25.8% 47.1% 36.5% 55kt / 36h 17.2% 23.3% 20.3% 55kt / 48h 49.3% 23.6% 36.4% 70kt / 48h 25.2% 17.7% 21.4% 65kt / 72h 55.9% 24.9% 40.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.04 WP272026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.00 168.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 24.3 19.0 20.3 22.9 35.3 38.7 45.7 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 50.0 47.0 N N N F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 -2.0 -1.0 -3.0 -7.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%