Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    167.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  20.9  25.2  24.5  30.1  31.6  31.4  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  89.0  87.0  85.0  79.0  76.0  79.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  56.0  26.0  26.0 108.0  74.0 103.0  69.0  F  N  U  U  F  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        3.8%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       16.3%       30.8%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h        8.7%       14.0%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.4%       12.8%        8.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%       12.1%        7.8%
 45kt / 36h       16.2%       32.4%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        8.6%       12.6%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h       41.6%       16.5%       29.0%
 70kt / 48h       21.9%        9.9%       15.9%
 65kt / 72h       53.0%       28.8%       40.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.06

 WP272026 261005 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    167.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.9  20.9  25.2  24.5  30.1  31.6  31.4  26.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  63.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  63.0  65.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%