Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    167.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  22.7  22.6  28.6  30.8  28.9  25.2  20.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   93.0  92.0  90.0  88.0  86.0  85.0  79.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  63.0  71.0  76.0  44.0  38.0  57.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.4%        9.2%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       32.4%       44.6%       38.5%
 30kt / 24h       20.9%       26.9%       23.9%
 35kt / 24h       13.2%       26.9%       20.1%
 40kt / 24h       13.2%       26.5%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       36.0%       29.5%
 55kt / 36h       13.6%       16.1%       14.9%
 55kt / 48h       41.8%       18.6%       30.2%
 70kt / 48h       22.0%       10.6%       16.3%
 65kt / 72h       48.9%       29.1%       39.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.92

 WP272026 261006 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    167.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.5  22.7  22.6  28.6  30.8  28.9  25.2  20.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  F  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%