Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    166.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  25.0  28.2  32.3  28.8  29.0  17.6  22.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  90.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  80.0  85.0  94.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  72.0  76.0  71.0  25.0  64.0  76.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.7%        4.6%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       16.9%       26.0%       21.5%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       12.1%       11.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.4%       11.2%        9.3%
 40kt / 24h        7.4%       11.1%        9.2%
 45kt / 36h       13.7%       18.9%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        6.7%        6.0%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h       32.5%       10.2%       21.3%
 70kt / 48h       14.0%        4.3%        9.1%
 65kt / 72h       49.8%       19.5%       34.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.00

 WP272026 261006 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.40    166.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  25.0  28.2  32.3  28.8  29.0  17.6  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  61.0  59.0  58.0  62.0  59.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  F  F  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%