Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    165.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     69.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.1  26.9  23.1  28.3  37.5  30.9  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   90.0  88.0  86.0  86.0  84.0  78.0  91.0  90.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  66.0  56.0  35.0  44.0  34.0  62.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.1%        6.5%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       22.2%       39.9%       31.0%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       25.5%       18.3%
 35kt / 24h        5.6%       25.3%       15.5%
 40kt / 24h        5.6%       20.8%       13.2%
 45kt / 36h       16.2%       32.5%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        7.7%       14.1%       10.9%
 55kt / 48h       25.7%       15.6%       20.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.0%        6.4%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       39.6%       18.7%       29.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.02

 WP272026 261006 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    165.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  25.1  26.9  23.1  28.3  37.5  30.9  20.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%