Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP272026 261006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    164.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  25.4  23.3  24.6  34.4  30.6  28.7  17.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  86.0  86.0  84.0  79.0  84.0  95.0  82.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    66.0  56.0  35.0  16.0  41.0  45.0  30.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.2%       14.5%       13.3%
 25kt / 24h       40.7%       58.5%       49.6%
 30kt / 24h       22.0%       49.2%       35.6%
 35kt / 24h       13.4%       49.2%       31.3%
 40kt / 24h       13.2%       41.6%       27.4%
 45kt / 36h       24.4%       45.8%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h       12.5%       24.9%       18.7%
 55kt / 48h       26.2%       22.4%       24.3%
 70kt / 48h       10.2%       10.6%       10.4%
 65kt / 72h       35.8%       25.4%       30.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.06

 WP272026 261006 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    164.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  25.4  23.3  24.6  34.4  30.6  28.7  17.2  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  56.0  56.0  59.0  60.0  61.0  58.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%